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Population growth rates of reef sharks with and without fishing on the Great Barrier Reef: robust estimation with multiple models

机译：在大堡礁有捕捞和无捕捞的礁鲨的人口增长率：多种模型的可靠估计

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Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing.
机译：鲨鱼过度捕捞是全球关注的问题，过度捕捞威胁着越来越多的物种。对于许多鲨鱼，捕捞率和水下目视调查都被批评为丰度指标。在这种情况下，使用个人人口统计率估算人口趋势提供了一种评估人口状况的重要替代手段。但是，此类估计涉及不确定性，必须对不确定性进行适当表征，以可靠，有效地告知保护工作和管理。当通过间接方法获得关键人口统计率时，将不确定性纳入人口评估尤为重要，这通常是受捕捞的海洋生物死亡率的情况。在这里，我们以澳大利亚大堡礁上的两种礁鲨物种为重点，我们使用几种间接方法估算了自然死亡率和总死亡率，并确定了每种方法导致的种群增长率。我们使用自举法来量化与每个估计相关的不确定性，并评估估计之间的一致性程度。一旦考虑到与个人估计有关的不确定性，多种模型就可以产生高度一致的自然死亡率和总死亡率以及相关的人口增长率。跨模型的自然和总种群增长的共识性估计支持以下假设：与捕捞率趋势先前得出的结论相反，这些物种由于捕捞而迅速减少。此外，根据人口增长率估算值，对鱼类和非鱼类礁石的丰度差异的定量预测与以前使用水下目视调查的研究结果相当。这些发现似乎证明了采取管理措施以实质上降低礁鲨的捕捞死亡率的合理性。他们还强调了严格表征不确定性并应用多种评估方法以获得对过度捕捞威胁物种的种群趋势的可靠估计的潜在用途。

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